U.S. Open men’s title contenders: Jannik Sinner out, Carlos Alcaraz in and a U.S. man’s big chance?

As the defending champion returns and the world No. 1 withdraws, who will lift the men's trophy at the fourth Grand Slam of the year? Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jannik Sinner in last year's final. Sarah Stier / Share article 11 After a whiplash 48 hours, the U.S. Open men’s field has opened up in an unexpected way. On Thursday, defending champion Carlos Alcaraz confirmed that he would return to tennis in New York, after four months out with a right wrist injury.

Less than 24 hours later, Jannik Sinner — the world No. 1 and dominant men’s player of 2026 in Alcaraz’s enforced absence — withdrew from the fourth Grand Slam of the year with a right knee injury. That’s the opposite of what many fans expected, with Alcaraz not having played any competitive tennis since April; it changes the complexion of a draw that would otherwise have looked like Sinner against the world, the match he has been playing since spring.

Will opponents try to take advantage of any vulnerability, following the hyperaggressive blueprint that, say, Daniil Medvedev used to defeat a subdued Alcaraz at the BNP Paribas Open in March? They might. But doing that in best-of-five tennis is not the same in doing it in best-of-three, and Alcaraz’s best tennis of 2026 (and his U.S. Open run in 2025) came from his first serve offering both a solid platform and a release valve in tight moments.

In so many ways, a title win for him in New York would be remarkable. In so many others, it would just be Alcaraz doing Alcaraz things. That’s why it’s my pick, along with another possibility — but more on that in a second.

Alcaraz is the man to beat in New York. The 23-year-old Spaniard is returning after four months out with a wrist injury, but Sinner’s withdrawal removes his biggest rival. Before Alexander Zverev won this year’s French Open, Alcaraz and Sinner had shared the previous nine Grand Slam titles.

No player has defended a U.S. Open men’s singles title since Roger Federer in 2008. Even more astonishingly, no man has won the U.S. Open without playing the Canadian Open or Cincinnati Masters leading into the event. Which is why … I am going with Carlos Alcaraz. He’s already made history this year, becoming the youngest man to achieve the career Grand Slam. Why not make a little more?

Alcaraz doesn’t need to be 100 percent to win the U.S. Open, given the draw without Sinner. Sure, he hasn’t played since April 14 in Barcelona and wrist injuries are tricky to come back from. But Alcaraz, even at 70 to 80 percent, can succeed against most players in the draw. Call me foolish, but I see him going back-to-back.

My brain? It says Alexander Zverev. He’s been the best Grand Slam performer all year. He was a clean service game away from eliminating Alcaraz in the Australian Open semifinals. He picked up the pieces of a messy French Open and won his first Grand Slam title. Then, after a string of early or untimely exits at Wimbledon, he made the Wimbledon final, pushing Sinner hard for the first couple of hours.

He’s not been great since, losing his first match at the Canadian Open and squandering a match point against Tommy Paul in the Cincinnati Open round of 16. But unless he’s gassed, I find it hard to pick Alcaraz and his mysterious wrist, or 39-year-old Novak Djokovic, over Zverev.

Everyone says no? Fine. Then the timing feels right for Shelton to win a Grand Slam. He felt the sting of an opportunity wasted after falling in the first round at Wimbledon and showed he learned from that experience by going out and playing the smartest tennis of his career to win the Canadian Open in Montreal a few weeks later. An early loss at the ensuing Cincinnati Open might not have been the worst thing in the world, considering his shoulder broke down at the U.S. Open last year.