Patriots Super Bowl futures update: Expert model gives New England fourth-highest probability to hoist Lombardi Trophy

Get the latest New England Patriots Super Bowl odds, Kalshi prices, updated sportsbook lines, Dimers projections, and best futures value for the 2026-27 NFL season.

By Drew Norton | Advance Local By nearly any measure, except the one in which a team wins their last game of the season, the 2025-26 campaign represented a major step forward for the Patriots. New England returned to the Super Bowl behind Drake Maye, completing a rapid turnaround from the previous season, when they failed to reach the postseason.

Can they meet or even exceed those expectations? Dimers seems to think so. Dimers’ NFL futures model gives New England a 5.2% probability of winning the Super Bowl, the fourth-highest projection in the league. In fact, only the Rams, Bills and Seahawks rank ahead of the Patriots.

New England’s futures price varies considerably across the major sportsbooks. BetMGM and Caesars offer the best number at +2000, while bet365 and DraftKings have the Patriots as short as +1600. Among the listed options, +2000 at BetMGM and Caesars provides the strongest potential return. Those odds carry an implied probability of approximately 4.8%.

Dimers places New England’s actual championship probability at 5.2%, roughly 0.4 percentage points higher than the break-even rate attached to +2000. A 5.2% probability converts to fair American odds of approximately +1823, making the available +2000 price slightly longer than the model’s assessment.

The difference is not enormous, but it is meaningful in a futures market. Dimers is effectively saying the Patriots should be priced closer to +1800 than +2000. Kalshi’s championship market tells a similar story. New England’s “Yes” contract is priced at 5¢, reflecting a market estimate near 5%. That is almost identical to Dimers’ 5.2% projection.

The broad takeaway is straightforward: Dimers and Kalshi agree almost exactly on New England’s championship chances, while the best sportsbook odds give the Patriots a slightly lower implied probability. Dimers lists the Patriots behind only three teams in its preseason championship model.

New England’s placement is the most notable part of the projection. The Patriots are not merely included in the second tier of contenders; Dimers has them sitting directly behind the league’s top three teams. The model also gives New England a better championship probability than several teams carrying substantially shorter prices elsewhere.

Baltimore, for example, is available at +1200 despite receiving a slightly lower 5.0% projection. Kansas City is priced at +1600 with a 4.8% Dimers probability, while New England receives a stronger forecast and can be found at +2000.

That does not make the Patriots a likely champion in absolute terms. A 5.2% probability still means Dimers expects New England to fall short in nearly 95% of possible outcomes. After all, futures markets are inherently unforgiving, particularly before a full NFL season has been played.